September 13, 2009

huMan's Nature with Money
      
Trading - NSE or BSE, I call both as Nation's money Sucking Exchanges for any one who is not doing trading as a profession. And it is money making for one, who thinks, listens and hears everything related to money, with a minimum investment of one lac. Please find some of the TOOLS/LINKS to TRACK DATA, and money earning METHODS that can be used depending upon your availability of Money and Time. 

Trust me STOP LOSS is the key rule in Trading.  If you don't use STOP LOSS, you can't stop your losses.
 
‘If youre not greedy you will go far, you will live in happiness too... like the oompa.... loompa.... doompity do.’
 ‘Listen to the tips that you receive from your friends and other web sites, but do your analysis before implementing their thoughts‘
         
D a t a    T r a c k i n g    L i n k s
   
http://nifty.chart.tripod.com/
          TRIPOD helps you to find  the upside and downside movement of NIFTY.          
http://niftylivecharts.com/index.php
          Watch LIVE NIFTY figure and the world markets. 
http://www.marketwatch.com/
          Watch news about US Markets, Europe, Asia, Gold, Oil and currency.
http://www.myiris.com/
          FII Activity, Results calender and more.
http://www.moneycontrol.com/
          Create your portfolio.
http://money.rediff.com/
          Get instant quoute and last one years historical data.
http://www.niftylivecharts.com/blog/
          Know details about resistance and support for the day
    



F U T U R E S (DERIVATIVES) T R A D I N G

The best way to earn money with the most minimum risk is trading in FUTURES NIFTY INDEX.  Futures script trading is also a good one to earn, but one need to analyse a lot about the script and need a lot of money (more than a lac). 

Why Futures is better than equities and options?

1) Futues vs Equities: The best part in Futures is that even though you follow an expiry date, you can initiate a SELL first and can wait for a buy till expiry.  Whereas in equities, when a SHORT SELL is done and if you are on a loss, the script will be bought on the Trading + 2nd day's closing price.   So, I suggest one can do FUTIDX trading on a following month expiry date rather than with current months, and so you have atleast 20 to 30 trading sessions to recover, to avoid any losses.

2) Futues vs Options: The traded price in CALL or PUT fluctuates by atleast 20% in the beginning of the day itself when the market opens and so there are chances for a huge profit or a huge loss.  The price of CALL or PUT does not have any mathematical relation with the NIFTY, but is based on NIFTY.  Options are best suited for people who can can do hedging.   In Futures trading is done on the price of NIFTY 50 stocks.  So predictions can be made that market may go high or low depending upon the stock values.

With the below details a beginner can enter into Futures trading with a minimum investment of 10000/- or 20000/- and can earn upto a minimum 10% to 20% a month and that depends upon his/her patience. 

FUTURES INDEX (FUTIDX) Trading 

      In futues index trading, one will trade the NSE value itself. I am taking MINIFTY as an example over here where the lot size (minimum quantity) defined is 20 for which you need an approximate INR 10000/-.  Now for example make a buy of MINIFTY at 4950 and sell at 4990).  You could see that you have made a profit of 40 points or 40 rupees multiplied by the quantity you bought which is 20 * 40 = 800/- and that's around 8% profit. 

      Only thing is that you need to know, what are the possible lows and highs that NIFTY can make in the next 15 to 20 sessions.  For example, if you are sure that some of the premium or heavy weight stocks that are part of NIFTY like RIL, SBIN, HDFC, LT, BHARTI ARTL, DLF, UNITECH, TCS, INFOSYS etc have hit a low price and are about to go high in the next few trading sessions, one can buy MINIFTY and hold for 5 to 15 sessions.  If the market is in buying trend, it is for sure you will make a profit. 

The other trends to watch for intraday futures trading are

a)





        
O P T I O N S (DERIVATIVES)     T R A D I N G
     
Visit http://investopedia.com/university/options/option.asp to know,  what does options trading mean.
 
I am writing my experience and thoughts towards NIFY OPTIONS INDEX Trading and is not an advise to anyone.
Factors to watch for a PUT OPTION on INTRADAY to trade with a minimum difference of 3 points difference (The reverse of the below points applies for a CALL OPTION)
1) In the second chart (MACD/SIGNAL) of Tripod, volume indicated by blue lines should be above zero level and a downward curve should start.
2) In the third chart (RSI) of Tripod, the blue zig zag curve should be above the 80 mark and start facing downwards.
3) In the fourth chart (W%R) of Tripod, the blue zig zag curve should be above the 20 mark and start facing downwards.
4) In the fifth chart (stock%k / stock%D) of Tripod, the blue zig zag curve should be above the 80 mark and start facing downwards.
5) The curve in the LIVE CHARTS of NSE 50, NSE BANK, CNX IT and NSE MID CAP in HOME page, should point downards.
6) The most Important.  Keep an eye of the above indicators and make sure that the VOLUME of BUYERS in the PUT OPTION is atleast 20% more that of the sellers.
7)  Make sure that atleast 60% of the NIFTY 50 stocks are on the negative side.
   
More Tips on OPTIONS Trading
   
a) Use TRIPOD chart to analyse, if the Market will go up or down on that day.  To check, whether the Market will go up or not, go to DATA WATCH segment below.
  
b) Go for a PUT or CALL option to the nearest underlying value.   Choose the PUT OPTION within -150 points from NIFTY value(underlying) and CALL OPTION within next 100 points from underlying value. For example, if the NIFTY Underlying value is 4640, either go for a PUT 4600/4500 OPTION (or) CALL 4700 option. 
   
c) Try to have a demat account with low brokerage towards OPTIONS trading.  For intraday, if the brokerage amount is One rupee per quantity of stock (or) say 50 rupees per Lot of 50 excluding taxes, you can trade huge quantity with a difference of 3 rupees between the buy and sell value. For example, if you buy a single lot, you can easily earn around 100 rupees or atleast 2% with less risk.
  
d) Nifty Index Meter (NTI) can be seen in LIVE CHARTS.  If NTI of NIFTY 50 reaches above 95%, it is for sure that NIFTY will move downwards in the next two days.  If NTI turns to 95% for all NIFTY 50, BANK NIFTY and CNX IT, the there is a high possibility of NIFTY going downards drastically within hours.  If the NTI values are less that 5%, its a strong call for BUY.
      
    
E q u i t y     T r a d i n g     M e t h o d s
   
a) SAFE MODE – Trading happens less than thrice in a month with decent returns of around 3% to 5% a month. Note: Less that 1% is what you get, if you invest in a Bank Fixed Deposit. So don’t be greedy.
 
Watch the lowest price of a stock in the past 3 months using Historical data available in http://www.nseindia.com/  Select Equity, Historical Data, Security Wise data and enter your script name with date. Watch the Low price in the last 3 months and find where NIFTY WAS during the low priced day. Check the NIFTY price from the DATA WATCH segment below. If you expect current NIFTY to go down in the next one month, do hold on with your money and wait for your target price.
 
If you are a BEGINNER, select one or two stocks or companies, that will always earn profits and that doesn’t shut down suddenly. For example, (a) Communication is the latest in trend and BHARTI AIRTEL is a company, that is fast growing and less chances of shutting down, (b) Population is growing and power needs to be produced from different sources. Being a BEGINNER, you will get advice from a number of friends with a number of stocks, but do a research on that stock. Watch the STOCK ANALYSIS segment down for analyzing a stock.
 
b) TRICKY SHORT SELL (LESS RISK-MORE PROFIT-LESS TIME)  - A simple technique, but one needs to analyze a stock in few minutes.
 
Goto http://www.nseindia.com and select ‘Top Gainers and Losers’. You will be able to see 10 buzzing stocks nearing 20%, which is the maximum limit for trading for most of the stocks. If a stock is reaching around 15% with good volume (minimum of  500000 shares), it might reach to 20%. Before it reaches 20%, do a quick background check of the stock in a few minutes and find its historical data from NSE, market value and recent news from http://money.rediff.com/). If you find the stock is rising because of some news, do a SHORT SELL, when it reaches 19% or so. Buy back the shares of the stock when it comes back to 15%. You earn 4% within minutes, but selecting a stock is the most important factor over here. If you trade on a stock with low volume, say qty as1500, the stock will freeze in a moment and you will not be able to BUY BACK. And you know that the concept of SHORT SELL, is to SELL the scrip initially and BUYING it again before EOD.
 
c) SHORT SELL USING CHARTS (Risky - need MORE Money/Limit - Time Bound) -   This method of trading can be used on a volatile trading day. This method cannot be used when the market soars/plummets. This method can be used by a person, who does trading only on selective stocks. Using this method, you can earn money either in an hour or might take the entire day depending upon your PROFIT taking. Good technique for professionals and you need to get the limit from your broker.  LIMIT is something where your broker lends you money at no/extra charge. Say, you have invested only 50,000/-, but your broker will allow you to do trading upto 3 lakhs of his money.
 
Let me take BHARTI AIRTEL (BA) as an example to describe this process as it stands to be my favorite stock, though I haven’t traded much on this stock. One needs to know the range of the stock. For example, BA trades is in the range of 400 to 430 during a month. On a average, let’s assume, the stock trades at +2% or -2%. Let’s say the previous day’s Closing price (CP) of the stock is 415. You have a sense that market will move up today. 
 
When the market moves up, the value of the stock goes up by 2% reaching 423 which is the Current Market price(CMP). At 423, you need to do a SHORT SELL of 100 stocks. The value of the stock reduces to 418, where you can put a BUY and your transaction is complete with 1% profit.
Assume you have done a SHORT SELL of 100 shares at 423, but the value is increased to 430. Now it looks like the stock won’t reach the price of 418 as expected but might close at 424, wherein you feel that there will go be no gain after brokerage charges or you incur a loss. At this point, you need to do a SHORT SELL once again at 430 and your selling average becomes 427. If your stock comes back to 423 or 420, you can BUY BACK, before EOD with a gain of 1%, but you might have traded huge quantity.
 
d) AVERAGING – Yet to be scribbled
e) OPTIONS – PUT/CALL - Yet to be scribbled
f) END OF QUARTER
g) LONG TERM INVESTMENT & SHORT TERM INVESTMENT
h) IPO & FPO
 
   
DATA WATCH & FAQ 
    
NIFTY History - OPEN-LOW-HIGH-CLOSING price - To find Nifty Low, Select F&O, Historical Data and Contract Wise Price Volume Data from http://www.nseindia.com/  Select FUTIDX against Instrument, NIFY against Symbol and give From Date and To Date anywhere between last 90 days. No need to enter data against Expiry Date, Option Type and Strike Price. You will be able to see the NIFTY data.
  
MARTKET MOVEMENT - Will it be UP or DOWN tomorrow?
   
NIFTY STOCKS (or) What NIFTY means?
Go to http://www.nseindia.com/ click NIFTY Stock Watch and you will be able to see the 50 stocks that moves the NIFTY index or that generates the chart. 50 large capital stocks are taken from different sectors like OIL, AUTOMOBILE, COMMUNICATION, INFRASTRUCTURE, BANK, IT, STEEL, POWER, PHARMACEUTICALS, AIRLINES, CEMENT, MEDIA, FAST MOVING CONSUMER GOODS, ETC
 
STOCK ANALYSIS
TBC

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